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Financement de l’UE (6 531 288 €) : Évaluation des conséquences en cascade des points de basculement climatiques dans la connexion océan-écologie marine-société Hor 28/04/2026 Programme de recherche et d'innovation de l'UE « Horizon »
Vue d’ensemble
Texte
Évaluation des conséquences en cascade des points de basculement climatiques dans la connexion océan-écologie marine-société
OceanNexus aims to push understanding and prediction of climate-driven tipping points and cascading effects in the ocean–marine ecology–society nexus. As global warming accelerates, abrupt changes in ocean systems—such as the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), slowdown of the Subpolar Gyre (SPG), and persistent marine heatwaves—pose escalating risks to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human societies. OceanNexus will harness state-of-the-art eddy-rich Earth System Models (ESMs), advanced ecosystem models, and integrated assessment frameworks to quantify near-, mid-, and long-term impacts under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Five European case studies—North Atlantic, Baltic Sea, Bay of Biscay, Northwestern Mediterranean, and Ebro Delta—will provide contrasting contexts to analyze physical, ecological, and social system responses. The project pioneers the coupling of climate, ecological, and social models, enabling robust risk assessment and scenario planning. Novel statistical and AI tools will be developed to identify early warning signals of ocean and social tipping points. OceanNexus will deliver policy-ready indicators, engage stakeholders through science-policy panels, and co-design adaptive governance strategies for safe operating spaces. Outputs will support international assessments (IPCC, IPBES, UNFCCC), enhance monitoring of Essential Climate and Ocean Variables, and foster open science and societal learning. By integrating disciplinary expertise and promoting equity, OceanNexus will strengthen Europe’s leadership in ocean–climate–biodiversity science, inform transformative policy, and build resilience against future ocean tipping events.
| Aarhus Universitet | 687 178 € |
| Agencia Estatal Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas | 480 030 € |
| Asociacion Ecopath International Initiative | 187 500 € |
| Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche | 506 601 € |
| Danmarks Tekniske Universitet | 593 750 € |
| Fundacion Azti - Azti Fundazioa | 391 989 € |
| Kobenhavns Universitet | 1 291 371 € |
| National Oceanography Centre | 466 634 € |
| Plymouth Marine Laboratory Ltd. | 495 230 € |
| Universiteit Utrecht | 742 125 € |
| University of Leicester | 688 880 € |
https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101288545
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